Lebanon: Hariri verdict, Hezbollah and Iran

April 5, 2016

 

 

 

Vision

Interview about Lebanon's future. Published in the August edition of FEMME MAGAZINE.
(Translated from French)

Lebanon's stability is not in danger

These visions are for more or less the next 12 to 16 months. Their order is by topic or region, not by time plan.

The general development of the country is in a very good direction. The stability the country has seen in the past 12 month will remain. The political fractions well remain the direction they are having right now.
I see an important post in the ministry being changed; a new person will take over one of the ministries. One of the very important figures on the political stage will step down or disappear.

The situation with Israel will stay the way it has been this last 12 months, I don see a direct aggression or open war from Israel against Lebanon. Even between Hezbollah and Israel will remain a stable situation.

I see the country making a very important alliance with a new partner. This strategic alliance will help the country to gain influence in an international group or organization.

The tribunal concerning the assassinating of Rafic Hariri will not take any spectacular direction. Backstage agreements will keep it very quiet and to everybody‚ satisfaction.
The Hezbollah will get involved in negotiations with Israel to work out a difficult situation.

In the international media Hezbollah will be able to make important statement or important news on their favor. I can see appear the face of a new person who will take an important roll in the movement.
Regarding the weapons the movement is holding, I can see that there will be an agreement between the parties. This agreement will be a balanced result between the different opinions. I don‚ see a full integration of the militia to the regular army.

The Palestinian peace process will open an unexpected door and bringing up new talks.
I can see new political tensions coming up between Syria and Israel. They wont lead to an open conflict.

The economy will move on in a good direction. Internal difficulties but not a war. Its still a good moment to invest in Lebanon.

About political leaders in Lebanon:

Michel Suleiman: At the end of his presidency, he will remain in power and occupy an important position. Either it will be re-elected head of the country or it will fill another important post in which he will hold an important power. At one point, he will play an important role in the judiciary.

Saad Hariri: Someone very close to him will betray him. This will limit its power. It will create a new alliance with a foreign power, which will give Lebanon a new position on the political spectrum.

Nasrallah: Stay clear and strong in his position. I dont see the Hariri trail seriously harming his political future. Him and his party I can see holding in the future a strong position in Lebanon.

Aoun: For him changing site was a very good move. His people will start to take more power again. He will become stronger on the political stage.

Joumblatt: He will get involved in personal problems, creating difficulties for him. I see him doing an unexpected political move. For him and his people this move will be helpful.

Nabih Berri: He will cut a very good deal for himself. A position giving him good power is waiting for him. If someone wants do make carrier in politics its good to stay close to Berris circles.

Geagea: In a shorter time frame he will have a political fall before he will move on. In a long time frame he will hold an important seat in Lebanon politics. A good powerful position is waiting for him.

Amine Gemayel: Nothing special coming up related to him.
To the interview: FEMME MAGAZINE

 

 

Outcome

February 1st.
First analysis of my visions given in August of 2010.

The important change at the ministry was Saad Hariri who lost his position as PM on January 12, 2011. With him leaving, the ministers will be changed too. Not only one minister lost his job but probably all of them. The new person taking over the ministries is new PM Najib Mikati.
Quote:
"One of the very important figures on the political stage will step down or disappear."
On January 12, 2011 Saad Hariri had to step down as PM.

With Najib Mikati in Power Hezbollah is basically controlling the country. This is the statement to the world and good news on their favor. The new person I saw taking an important role in (for) the movement is Najib Mikati, Lebanons new PM.

End of 2010 doors to a new peace talk between Palestinians and Israel opened.

So far the economy is moving on in a good direction. Internal difficulties happened with the collapse of the Government but no open war.

About political leaders in Lebanon:

Saad Hariri: Jumblatt who joined Nasrallahs political alliance betrayed him. It did not only limit his power, it toke him out of office. This is giving Lebanon a new position in the political spectrum.

Nasrallah: He is very strong in his position. They hold a very strong position in the country.

Aoun: His position is stronger than it was one year ago.

Jumblatt: The political move was switching side. In January of 2011 his socialist Party gave Hezbollah support. This was very helpful for him; he became the Kingmaker.

Updating June, 2011

Due to the unrests in Syria, violent clashes came up on the border between Syria and Israel. Many civilians got killed by the fire of Israeli soldiers.

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