Lebanon, the Middle East and two wars to come for Israel
April 5, 2016
PREDICTIONS 2013 FOR LEBANON AND THE REGION
The new year, 2013 will not be much different than 2012 was for Lebanon, in that there will be no serious political conflict or economical downfall--particularly for the first 6 months of 2013, Meanwhile, the second half of the year will see more political tension.
National politics will experience difficulties beginning of the year and late summer.
Coalition March 8 will lose of its influence; meanwhile Coalition March 14 runs the danger of internal conflicts. If they can't work out their internal conflict it will harm their influence.
The northern border with Syria will experience tension. Beirut will experience only one bloody moment in 2013. It will hit a single target, create some interim insecurity but then the city will get back to normal. Christians will be able to stay out of trouble, though conflict between Muslim factions will come up. An important political personality but not Party leader will get killed.
Aoun will reinforce his position to that of increased strength, though his health is weak and appears to be within in his chest. He will win a legal battle. Sleiman will be able to keep his position and the party of Joumblatt will win a lot of influence in this year. On a personal level, Walid Joumblatt will have a very important celebration coming up. Hariri will find his that his place in national politics is very strong. He will play a bigger role than he did in 2012. In the last quarter of 2013, he needs to be very careful, as his life is in danger. Geagea will make news by making himself strong for legal changes. It will be a good year for him as his position in the alliance will become stronger. Nasrallah and his party will remain stable until the second half of the year, then they will have to fight for political influence and he will lose an important supporter. Mikati will find himself losing power. Instability within his alliance will weaken him but remove him from the political la