During The first months of 2014, the political situation in Lebanon will remain as it was in 2013. Starting during the summer, the stability will become very weak and then a wave of violence will spread through the country, mostly in the South of Lebanon and Beirut. Between Lebanon and Israel an open conflict is on the horizon. Between late summer and the end of the year, Israel will find itself involved in a bloody conflict, either directly with Lebanon or a new violent conflict with Palestine. It won’t be an open war between Israel and Iran. The autumn conflict for Lebanon won’t last long but it will be violent. Reaching end of the year, the situation will regain some stability.
The Syrian border to Lebanon will remain unstable. Infiltration from Syria will bring waves of violence. For the first time, the Christians in Lebanon will get directly involved in the new Syria conflict. They will find themselves under attacked especially in the first two months of the year the Christians will be under heavy threat. Passing through the first four to five months of 2014t he biggest danger for the Christians will pass.
Lebanon will have to face direct conflict from two sides, the South and the East.
The center of Lebanon will experience very difficult times with violence and blood, more than the north. Still, the country won’t fall apart in federal states. Internally political union won’t change much from 2013. The next President's start will be marked by major problems and he won’t be able to bring together a working government. At the end of 2014 the Government will be without direction or guidance.
Sleiman He will be able to keep himself with an important post. 2014 will be a good year for him.
Nasrallah New support from abroad will straighten his position. Hezbollah will be happy with the year.
Gemayel The year will start good for him but then will become difficult. Blood will flow very close to him.
Mikati He will be able to position himself in a new post. He will get back to new power.
Tamam Salam An internal fight will weaken him. After conflicts, he will be able to regain control and towards the end of year he will be in a good position.
Joumblatt First he will gain good contacts from abroad and he will reposition himself. There will be internal conflicts among his political family. Leadership will be questioned.
He will be able to build up his position in the first months of the year. He will not lose power and he will still be around at the end of 2014. His power will remain through the year.
The country Syria The conflict within the country will become worse late spring/early summer. Reaching summer, negotiations and agreements will be made but this will not stop the conflict. Neither the Opposition or the Government will be able to destroy fully the other side.
No war between Israel and Iran. Iran’s influence will remain strong. A new religious personality from Iran will gain influence in Lebanon.
Its influence in Lebanon will become stronger. The country will change its policy towards Lebanon and try to influence more directly through Syria.
The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will become more violent, specially trough their political supporters in Lebanon.
The country will not fall apart. It will remain unstable but not as terrible as it was in 2013.
A political crisis will bring problems to the country. Turkey will lose some of its international influence, it will not be a good year for the country. A important politician will get killed.
The crisis between USA and Saudi Arabia will intensify. President Obama will have a very hard time around summer. He will find himself accused and under legal threads. The USA will find itself under a new attack. The enemy will hit from the water, not like 9/11 from the air.
The regional sectarian conflict in the Middle East will start to be more violent and less politically during the next years.
Link to publication
March 30, 2014
The Syrian border to Lebanon is very unstable, experiencing a lot of violence. Infiltration from Syria is bringing waves of violence. More people, including Army personal, than ever before in this conflict have been killed at the Syrian border. Link to News
Political power fights, Twitter and Youtube blocked, the country is in crisis.
July 10, 2014
Bloody and open conflict between Israel and Palestine started late summer
July 15, 2014
Israel shells south Lebanon after rocket attack Link to News
June 24, 2014
Open and bloody conflict between Israel and Palestine ongoing
September 15, 2014
Since 2006 the border between Israel and Lebanon has remained largely quiet, but in February Israeli warplanes attacked targets inside Lebanon for the first reported time since the 2006 conflict and Hezbollah vowed revenge.
October 22, 2014
Turkey: The country suffers a lot of violence with many people killed. Politican F. Yalcon got killed
November 18, 2014
Lebanon: In summer/late summer Lebanon became very weak and suffered a wave of violence spreading trough the country. Sunny extremists attacked the Army, toked hostages, killing many civilians. Shootings between political and religious fractions killed many people.
Israel: In summer, Israel and Palestine where in war. Late summer, Israeli and Palestinian terrorism hit both countries hard in a wave of violence between the two countries.
July 1st, 2015
USA: In 2014 for the first time after 2001 the USA found itself under a new attack inside the country. SONY got hacked and the attack was concidered a terroist attack by a foreign nation. It did not come not from the water but the cyber sea.
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