Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Iraq and the elections in France and the USA
Lebanon immune to storms The general forecast for Lebanon in 2012 is positive. On an economical level the situation well be more stable than on a political. Tensions between Sunni and Siha will grow more than between Christians and Muslims. Political stability will follow the line of 2011. From a pure economical point of view we shall see good grow and especially on the import/export level we will experience a good growing face. Around February of 2012 the STL will experience some breath taking news. They will create tension on a political level and raise fears regarding of provoking serious troubles. It will be possible to bring back stability and no real serious problem will come up. At the end of the year no political party or person will be harmed in a serious way. Important steps will be reached and bring some tranquility in this issue.
Saas Hariri will come back on the political stage. He will have a good start but then soon having a serious problem with an political ally who will disappoint him or even betray him. 2012 will be a much better year for him than 2011. His political carrier will experience good moments for him. He will receive an important recognition or price from abroad.
Lebanon will have a good year in Sports. Its athletes will bring home medals, giving honor to its country! The country will have the possibility to bring an important and international sport event home. The problems in Syria wont harm Hezbollah too much. They will be able to create a very important alliance. Nasrallahs position will remain similar to the past. The economical situation of the party will remain stable. The political landscape within the country will remain as we have seen it in 2011. I don‚Äôt see any mayor armed conflict coming up. No assassination of some very important personalities will disturb the political stability. The future of Lebanon within the next 3 to 4 years is positive. Within its normal tensions and problems the country will experience constant stability and economical grow. The problems around the region will help Lebanon to become more stable.
I dont see a war with Israel coming up. Israel will loose of its arrogance and aggressive behavior towards Lebanon. Israel will loose in the next 3 or 4 years a very important battle on the political stage. This will force Israel change its brutal politic in the region and not only towards Lebanon.
The position of the Christians in the country will remain stable. They will be able to negotiate their faith. They will be able to reach an important agreement on a legislation level.
The borders between Lebanon and Syria will remain stable. I dont see a direct involvement of Lebanon in the political unrest in Syria. Syria will not have the same destiny such as Egypt, Libya or Tunisia! The Government will be able to keep the power. The Government is backed so strongly from abroad that it is not possible to take it down. It will be back on the international political landscape very soon. Those who expect radical changes in the country will have to wait. I dont see a Civil war at the horizon. Trough negotiations the Government will bring back stability. Even economically Syria wont be hurt too much. Business in 2012 will go on running.
International intervention like in Libya will one more time become a serious option but not happen. The international community will not be able to take a united position against Syria.
Palestinians will get closer to their own state. Israel will not be able to sabotage or wont start a new war. The Palestinians will reach new steps in their recognition as a state. They will be able to create more unity and become stronger. A very important deal will be reached with Israel. 2012 is not a good year for Israel! I don‚ see that the Palestinians in Lebanon leaving very soon. The development in Palestine wont influence much on the Palestinians in Lebanon.
In Egypt the situation will build up in a productive way. The alliance between Military and Politic will be positive. Egypt went trough its worst times and has a good year to expect. The border with Israel will experience much more blood. Egypt will be looking for a new long term alliance and move away from the close relationship with the USA. Egypt will gain a lot of control in Palestine.
Iraq will become a new strong player on the political landscape. It will be able to avoid a open civil war and not fall into complete chaos. The relationship between Iraq and Iran will become stronger. Iraq will be a gold mine and very good place to invest in this year. Within the next years it will recover very fast.
There will not be any open conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran will experience a division within its political landscape. No upraising of students or other insurgencies will lead to unrests. The next big challenge for Iran is not Israel or the mob in the streets but it‚ own leaders. Saudi Arabia will remain stable on a political level. It will suffer economically. It will have a strong disagreement with a very important partner. That will lead to the economical problems. 2011 was very much influenced my political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa. This movement will be stopped in 2012. This year will be in the News for its economical positioning.
President Sarkozy will suffer in the coming elections and not be happy with the outcome. President Obama will be very happy with the outcome of the elections.
Updating, May 14: In northern city of Tripoli Sunnis and Alawis (Shia Islam branch) clash. Several people got killed, many injured. Link to news Updating, May 6: President Sarkozy lost the French elections and was not happy at all with the outcome! Updating, November 14: Saad Hariri became very active in 2012, due to the situation in Lebanon he appeared much more on the political stage. Lebanon got affected by the unrests in Syria but was able to control the instability inside its borders. On November 6 Barak Obama got reelected as President of the USA. During the summer months the border between Israel and Egypt experienced a lot of violence mainly on Egypts side. Updating, November 30: The United Nations voted overwhelmingly to recognize a Palestinian state, a long-sought victory for the Palestinians.
Updating, September 15, 2015:
Palestine takes another small step towards statehood